When:
The presidential election is scheduled for 25 October 2025.
Main contenders:
Although incumbent Alassane Ouattara of the ruling Rally of Houphouëtists for Democracy and
Peace (RHDP) party has still not announced his candidacy, he is expected to run. If he does, he
would be the frontrunner due to the current exclusion of main opposition candidates, RHDP's
control of key state institutions, along with his strong track record on economic growth and
security.
The electoral competition is substantially restricted because:
- Ouattara’s key challenger Tidjane Thiam is barred from the October 2025 presidential
election. On 22 April 2025, the Ivorian judiciary ordered Thiam’s removal from the
electoral list, just a week after his Democratic Party of Côte d'Ivoire (PDCI-RDA) –
RHDP's former coalition partner – elected him as its presidential candidate. The court
cited Article 48 of the 1960 Nationality Code, claiming Thiam lost his Ivorian citizenship
when he acquired French nationality in 1987. According to the law, only dual nationals
by birth are exempt from this rule. Thiam’s lawyers contend, in vain, that he qualifies for
this exemption due to his father being French. Despite officially renouncing his French
citizenship in March 2025 to comply with electoral rules barring dual nationals from
presidential elections, Thiam’s current citizenship status remains unclear. The court’s
ruling, which is irrevocable, effectively excludes him from the upcoming presidential
election.
- Several other key opposition figures remain ineligible. Former president Laurent
Gbagbo, his ex-ally Charles Blé Goudé, and former rebel leader and Prime Minister
Guillaume Soro have expressed interest in running but currently cannot. Gbagbo and
Blé Goudé were convicted by domestic courts for their roles in the post-election violence
in 2010-2011, while Soro was sentenced in absentia to life imprisonment for threatening
state security after the 2020 presidential election. They can only participate if Ouattara
grants them amnesty. Defying the exclusion, Gbagbo has declared his intention to run in
October 2025 election.
- Biased electoral commission further undermines the credibility of the electoral process.
In March 2025, PDCI and Laurent Gbagbo’s Party of African People – Côte d’Ivoire
(PPA-CI) withdrew from the Independent Electoral Commission (CEI), denouncing its
lack of autonomy and demanding electoral reforms, including the revision of the electoral
list.
Update of the implications for foreign businesses:
Recent events significantly increase risks:
- Thiam’s exclusion from the presidential election on nationality grounds heightens the risk
of electoral violence and political instability. The concept of “Ivoirité” (Ivoirianness) has
been highly divisive in Côte d’Ivoire, previously used to bar Ouattara from the 1995 and
2000 presidential elections, ultimately triggering the 1999 military coup and years of
instability. This includes the 2002 rebellion, a protracted civil conflict and 2011 post-
election violence. Thiam’s exclusion on questionable grounds, combined with the two
opposition parties withdrawing from the electoral commission, undermines the credibility
of the electoral process and threatens to further erode the legitimacy of Ouattara’s
potential re-election.
- Deteriorating relations with Burkina Faso’s military government compound the risk of
instability. Burkinabé leader Ibrahim Traoré has repeatedly accused Côte d’Ivoire of
harboring opponents trying to destabilize his government, most recently on 21 April 2025. In retaliation, Burkina Faso could support Ouattara’s opponents in their attempts to destabilize his government.
- A return to political instability would undermine Ouattara’s 15-year legacy of progress,
negatively impacting foreign investment and economic growth.