Election in CĂ´te d'Ivoire (Update)

Election Monitor

Posted by Maja Bovcon on April 23, 2025 · 4 mins read

When:

The presidential election is scheduled for 25 October 2025.

Main contenders:

Although incumbent Alassane Ouattara of the ruling Rally of Houphouëtists for Democracy and Peace (RHDP) party has still not announced his candidacy, he is expected to run. If he does, he would be the frontrunner due to the current exclusion of main opposition candidates, RHDP's control of key state institutions, along with his strong track record on economic growth and security.

The electoral competition is substantially restricted because:

  • Ouattara’s key challenger Tidjane Thiam is barred from the October 2025 presidential election. On 22 April 2025, the Ivorian judiciary ordered Thiam’s removal from the electoral list, just a week after his Democratic Party of CĂ´te d'Ivoire (PDCI-RDA) – RHDP's former coalition partner – elected him as its presidential candidate. The court cited Article 48 of the 1960 Nationality Code, claiming Thiam lost his Ivorian citizenship when he acquired French nationality in 1987. According to the law, only dual nationals by birth are exempt from this rule. Thiam’s lawyers contend, in vain, that he qualifies for this exemption due to his father being French. Despite officially renouncing his French citizenship in March 2025 to comply with electoral rules barring dual nationals from presidential elections, Thiam’s current citizenship status remains unclear. The court’s ruling, which is irrevocable, effectively excludes him from the upcoming presidential election.
  • Several other key opposition figures remain ineligible. Former president Laurent Gbagbo, his ex-ally Charles BlĂ© GoudĂ©, and former rebel leader and Prime Minister Guillaume Soro have expressed interest in running but currently cannot. Gbagbo and BlĂ© GoudĂ© were convicted by domestic courts for their roles in the post-election violence in 2010-2011, while Soro was sentenced in absentia to life imprisonment for threatening state security after the 2020 presidential election. They can only participate if Ouattara grants them amnesty. Defying the exclusion, Gbagbo has declared his intention to run in October 2025 election.
  • Biased electoral commission further undermines the credibility of the electoral process. In March 2025, PDCI and Laurent Gbagbo’s Party of African People – CĂ´te d’Ivoire (PPA-CI) withdrew from the Independent Electoral Commission (CEI), denouncing its lack of autonomy and demanding electoral reforms, including the revision of the electoral list.

Update of the implications for foreign businesses:

Recent events significantly increase risks:

  • Thiam’s exclusion from the presidential election on nationality grounds heightens the risk of electoral violence and political instability. The concept of “Ivoirité” (Ivoirianness) has been highly divisive in CĂ´te d’Ivoire, previously used to bar Ouattara from the 1995 and 2000 presidential elections, ultimately triggering the 1999 military coup and years of instability. This includes the 2002 rebellion, a protracted civil conflict and 2011 post- election violence. Thiam’s exclusion on questionable grounds, combined with the two opposition parties withdrawing from the electoral commission, undermines the credibility of the electoral process and threatens to further erode the legitimacy of Ouattara’s potential re-election.
  • Deteriorating relations with Burkina Faso’s military government compound the risk of instability. BurkinabĂ© leader Ibrahim TraorĂ© has repeatedly accused CĂ´te d’Ivoire of harboring opponents trying to destabilize his government, most recently on 21 April 2025. In retaliation, Burkina Faso could support Ouattara’s opponents in their attempts to destabilize his government.
  • A return to political instability would undermine Ouattara’s 15-year legacy of progress, negatively impacting foreign investment and economic growth.